| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.73) | 0.84 (0.69, 1.01) | 1.56 (1.18, 2.07) | 1.61 (1.23, 2.13) | 0.97 (0.82, 1.15) |
| 92_2 | 1.19 (0.33, 1.6) | 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) | 1.27 (0.99, 1.62) | 0.89 (0.71, 1.1) | 1.02 (0.79, 1.31) |
| 92_3 | 0.72 (0.58, 0.93) | 0.81 (0.63, 1.04) | 1.37 (1, 1.9) | 1.21 (0.88, 1.65) | 0.71 (0.58, 0.86) |
| 92_4 | 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) | 0.83 (0.71, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.77, 1.15) | 0.85 (0.69, 1.02) | 0.84 (0.72, 0.96) |
| 92_5 | 0.64 (0.54, 0.87) | 0.63 (0.53, 0.73) | 0.84 (0.66, 1.05) | 0.9 (0.71, 1.13) | 0.81 (0.68, 0.95) |
| 92_6 | 0.95 (0.66, 1.18) | 0.71 (0.58, 0.86) | 0.88 (0.71, 1.07) | 0.97 (0.78, 1.19) | 0.75 (0.64, 0.88) |
| 92_7 | 0.7 (0.51, 0.94) | 0.6 (0.48, 0.71) | 0.79 (0.63, 0.99) | 0.77 (0.62, 0.97) | 0.66 (0.55, 0.79) |
| 92_8 | 0.64 (0.58, 0.74) | 0.64 (0.58, 0.71) | 0.81 (0.66, 0.99) | 0.75 (0.62, 0.9) | 0.72 (0.61, 0.86) |
| 92_9 | 0.54 (0.42, 0.81) | 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) | 0.82 (0.65, 1.02) | 0.6 (0.49, 0.73) | 0.83 (0.61, 1.15) |
| 92_10 | 0.6 (0.5, 0.78) | 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) | 0.82 (0.69, 0.98) | 0.68 (0.57, 0.8) | 0.55 (0.5, 0.62) |
| 92_11 | 0.53 (0.42, 0.71) | 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) | 0.59 (0.42, 0.83) | 0.57 (0.42, 0.76) | 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) |
| 92_12 | 0.35 (0.27, 1.89) | 0.36 (0.27, 0.47) | 1.52 (1.05, 2.27) | 0.56 (0.4, 0.78) | 0.32 (0.26, 0.4) |
| 92_13 | 0.54 (0.47, 0.67) | 0.54 (0.47, 0.63) | 1.23 (1.01, 1.49) | 0.96 (0.75, 1.17) | 0.96 (0.81, 1.13) |
| 92_14 | 0.8 (0.63, 1.14) | 0.76 (0.62, 0.91) | 0.82 (0.65, 1.03) | 1.13 (0.91, 1.4) | 1.02 (0.87, 1.2) |
| 92_15 | 0.72 (0.58, 1.31) | 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) | 1.04 (0.72, 1.56) | 1.24 (0.85, 1.81) | 0.72 (0.58, 0.9) |
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.078 | 0.922 |
| 92_2 | 0.269 | 0.731 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_3 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.834 |
| 92_4 | 0.981 | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| 92_5 | 0.884 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.116 |
| 92_6 | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.877 | 0.034 |
| 92_7 | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.585 | 0.000 |
| 92_8 | 0.957 | 0.000 | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| 92_9 | 0.957 | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_10 | 0.274 | 0.000 | 0.502 | 0.224 |
| 92_11 | 0.839 | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_12 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.139 | 0.682 |
| 92_13 | 0.977 | 0.000 | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| 92_14 | 0.690 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.310 |
| 92_15 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.072 | 0.927 |
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | N00_99 | 0.9774739 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.9421121 | K00_99 | 0.9016411 |
| 92_2 | P00_99 | 0.9971998 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9910341 | N00_99 | 0.9894484 |
| 92_3 | cJ20_J22 | 0.8014141 | N00_99 | 0.3217462 | Q00_99 | 0.2578332 |
| 92_4 | cJ20_J22 | 0.1364293 | Q00_99 | 0.0649314 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.0553706 |
| 92_5 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.6428930 | N39 | 0.6385593 |
| 92_6 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.8122849 | N39 | 0.4528328 |
| 92_7 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | E00_99 | 0.9960030 | Z00_99 | 0.8672042 |
| 92_8 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.0952119 | P00_99 | 0.0647595 |
| 92_9 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.7349914 | P05_07 | 0.4826077 |
| 92_10 | K00_99 | 0.9673833 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9457021 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.3473003 |
| 92_11 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9771477 | ach_noj | 0.5789078 | pandemic | 0.2165072 |
| 92_12 | Z00_99 | 0.3403900 | P00_99 | 0.3354218 | ach_noj | 0.3310401 |
| 92_13 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.1424439 |
| 92_14 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.9639135 | K00_99 | 0.3407670 |
| 92_15 | pandemic | 0.8510587 | P00_99 | 0.6717132 | ach_noj | 0.4783418 |
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.84 (0.69, 1.01) | N00_99 | 0.98 | 0.78 (0.64, 0.96) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.94 | 0.78 (0.63, 0.95) | K00_99 | 0.9 | 0.8 (0.64, 0.99) |
| 92_2 | 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) | P00_99 | 1 | 0.46 (0.32, 0.71) | cJ20_J22 | 0.99 | 0.58 (0.38, 0.78) | N00_99 | 0.99 | 0.64 (0.49, 0.81) |
| 92_3 | 0.81 (0.63, 1.04) | cJ20_J22 | 0.8 | 0.82 (0.63, 1.05) | N00_99 | 0.32 | 0.76 (0.59, 0.96) | Q00_99 | 0.26 | 0.76 (0.6, 0.95) |
| 92_4 | 0.83 (0.71, 0.96) | cJ20_J22 | 0.14 | 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) | Q00_99 | 0.06 | 0.84 (0.73, 0.97) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.06 | 0.84 (0.73, 0.96) |
| 92_5 | 0.63 (0.53, 0.73) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.69 (0.57, 0.85) | ach_noj | 0.64 | 0.66 (0.56, 0.78) | N39 | 0.64 | 0.66 (0.56, 0.77) |
| 92_6 | 0.71 (0.58, 0.86) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.72 (0.6, 0.84) | ach_noj | 0.81 | 0.65 (0.55, 0.76) | N39 | 0.45 | 0.65 (0.55, 0.77) |
| 92_7 | 0.6 (0.48, 0.71) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.59 (0.49, 0.69) | E00_99 | 1 | 0.61 (0.49, 0.76) | Z00_99 | 0.87 | 0.61 (0.49, 0.75) |
| 92_8 | 0.64 (0.58, 0.71) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) | Z00_99 | 0.1 | 0.59 (0.51, 0.7) | P00_99 | 0.06 | 0.6 (0.52, 0.7) |
| 92_9 | 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.33 (0.24, 0.46) | ach_noj | 0.73 | 0.35 (0.28, 0.51) | P05_07 | 0.48 | 0.34 (0.26, 0.45) |
| 92_10 | 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) | K00_99 | 0.97 | 0.56 (0.5, 0.64) | cJ20_J22 | 0.95 | 0.56 (0.5, 0.64) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.35 | 0.55 (0.48, 0.62) |
| 92_11 | 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) | cJ20_J22 | 0.98 | 0.5 (0.4, 0.61) | ach_noj | 0.58 | 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) | pandemic | 0.22 | 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) |
| 92_12 | 0.36 (0.27, 0.47) | Z00_99 | 0.34 | 0.35 (0.27, 0.45) | P00_99 | 0.34 | 0.36 (0.28, 0.45) | ach_noj | 0.33 | 0.38 (0.31, 0.47) |
| 92_13 | 0.54 (0.47, 0.63) | P00_99 | 1 | 0.68 (0.57, 0.78) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.94 (0.79, 1.1) | Z00_99 | 0.14 | 0.95 (0.8, 1.12) |
| 92_14 | 0.76 (0.62, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.92 (0.77, 1.11) | Z00_99 | 0.96 | 0.87 (0.73, 1.04) | K00_99 | 0.34 | 0.86 (0.71, 1.03) |
| 92_15 | 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) | pandemic | 0.85 | 0.71 (0.55, 0.91) | P00_99 | 0.67 | 0.72 (0.56, 0.92) | ach_noj | 0.48 | 0.69 (0.54, 0.88) |
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