Chile_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
92_1 0.98 (0.82, 1.73) 0.84 (0.69, 1.01) 1.56 (1.18, 2.07) 1.61 (1.23, 2.13) 0.97 (0.82, 1.15)
92_2 1.19 (0.33, 1.6) 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) 1.27 (0.99, 1.62) 0.89 (0.71, 1.1) 1.02 (0.79, 1.31)
92_3 0.72 (0.58, 0.93) 0.81 (0.63, 1.04) 1.37 (1, 1.9) 1.21 (0.88, 1.65) 0.71 (0.58, 0.86)
92_4 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) 0.83 (0.71, 0.96) 0.95 (0.77, 1.15) 0.85 (0.69, 1.02) 0.84 (0.72, 0.96)
92_5 0.64 (0.54, 0.87) 0.63 (0.53, 0.73) 0.84 (0.66, 1.05) 0.9 (0.71, 1.13) 0.81 (0.68, 0.95)
92_6 0.95 (0.66, 1.18) 0.71 (0.58, 0.86) 0.88 (0.71, 1.07) 0.97 (0.78, 1.19) 0.75 (0.64, 0.88)
92_7 0.7 (0.51, 0.94) 0.6 (0.48, 0.71) 0.79 (0.63, 0.99) 0.77 (0.62, 0.97) 0.66 (0.55, 0.79)
92_8 0.64 (0.58, 0.74) 0.64 (0.58, 0.71) 0.81 (0.66, 0.99) 0.75 (0.62, 0.9) 0.72 (0.61, 0.86)
92_9 0.54 (0.42, 0.81) 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) 0.82 (0.65, 1.02) 0.6 (0.49, 0.73) 0.83 (0.61, 1.15)
92_10 0.6 (0.5, 0.78) 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) 0.82 (0.69, 0.98) 0.68 (0.57, 0.8) 0.55 (0.5, 0.62)
92_11 0.53 (0.42, 0.71) 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) 0.59 (0.42, 0.83) 0.57 (0.42, 0.76) 0.52 (0.42, 0.63)
92_12 0.35 (0.27, 1.89) 0.36 (0.27, 0.47) 1.52 (1.05, 2.27) 0.56 (0.4, 0.78) 0.32 (0.26, 0.4)
92_13 0.54 (0.47, 0.67) 0.54 (0.47, 0.63) 1.23 (1.01, 1.49) 0.96 (0.75, 1.17) 0.96 (0.81, 1.13)
92_14 0.8 (0.63, 1.14) 0.76 (0.62, 0.91) 0.82 (0.65, 1.03) 1.13 (0.91, 1.4) 1.02 (0.87, 1.2)
92_15 0.72 (0.58, 1.31) 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) 1.04 (0.72, 1.56) 1.24 (0.85, 1.81) 0.72 (0.58, 0.9)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
92_1 0.000 0.000 0.078 0.922
92_2 0.269 0.731 0.000 0.000
92_3 0.166 0.000 0.000 0.834
92_4 0.981 0.000 0.019 0.000
92_5 0.884 0.000 0.000 0.116
92_6 0.089 0.000 0.877 0.034
92_7 0.415 0.000 0.585 0.000
92_8 0.957 0.000 0.043 0.000
92_9 0.957 0.043 0.000 0.000
92_10 0.274 0.000 0.502 0.224
92_11 0.839 0.161 0.000 0.000
92_12 0.000 0.179 0.139 0.682
92_13 0.977 0.000 0.023 0.000
92_14 0.690 0.000 0.000 0.310
92_15 0.000 0.000 0.072 0.927

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
92_1 N00_99 0.9774739 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9421121 K00_99 0.9016411
92_2 P00_99 0.9971998 cJ20_J22 0.9910341 N00_99 0.9894484
92_3 cJ20_J22 0.8014141 N00_99 0.3217462 Q00_99 0.2578332
92_4 cJ20_J22 0.1364293 Q00_99 0.0649314 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.0553706
92_5 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.6428930 N39 0.6385593
92_6 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.8122849 N39 0.4528328
92_7 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9960030 Z00_99 0.8672042
92_8 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.0952119 P00_99 0.0647595
92_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.7349914 P05_07 0.4826077
92_10 K00_99 0.9673833 cJ20_J22 0.9457021 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.3473003
92_11 cJ20_J22 0.9771477 ach_noj 0.5789078 pandemic 0.2165072
92_12 Z00_99 0.3403900 P00_99 0.3354218 ach_noj 0.3310401
92_13 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.1424439
92_14 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.9639135 K00_99 0.3407670
92_15 pandemic 0.8510587 P00_99 0.6717132 ach_noj 0.4783418

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
92_1 0.84 (0.69, 1.01) N00_99 0.98 0.78 (0.64, 0.96) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.94 0.78 (0.63, 0.95) K00_99 0.9 0.8 (0.64, 0.99)
92_2 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) P00_99 1 0.46 (0.32, 0.71) cJ20_J22 0.99 0.58 (0.38, 0.78) N00_99 0.99 0.64 (0.49, 0.81)
92_3 0.81 (0.63, 1.04) cJ20_J22 0.8 0.82 (0.63, 1.05) N00_99 0.32 0.76 (0.59, 0.96) Q00_99 0.26 0.76 (0.6, 0.95)
92_4 0.83 (0.71, 0.96) cJ20_J22 0.14 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) Q00_99 0.06 0.84 (0.73, 0.97) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.06 0.84 (0.73, 0.96)
92_5 0.63 (0.53, 0.73) cJ20_J22 1 0.69 (0.57, 0.85) ach_noj 0.64 0.66 (0.56, 0.78) N39 0.64 0.66 (0.56, 0.77)
92_6 0.71 (0.58, 0.86) cJ20_J22 1 0.72 (0.6, 0.84) ach_noj 0.81 0.65 (0.55, 0.76) N39 0.45 0.65 (0.55, 0.77)
92_7 0.6 (0.48, 0.71) cJ20_J22 1 0.59 (0.49, 0.69) E00_99 1 0.61 (0.49, 0.76) Z00_99 0.87 0.61 (0.49, 0.75)
92_8 0.64 (0.58, 0.71) cJ20_J22 1 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) Z00_99 0.1 0.59 (0.51, 0.7) P00_99 0.06 0.6 (0.52, 0.7)
92_9 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) cJ20_J22 1 0.33 (0.24, 0.46) ach_noj 0.73 0.35 (0.28, 0.51) P05_07 0.48 0.34 (0.26, 0.45)
92_10 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) K00_99 0.97 0.56 (0.5, 0.64) cJ20_J22 0.95 0.56 (0.5, 0.64) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.35 0.55 (0.48, 0.62)
92_11 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) cJ20_J22 0.98 0.5 (0.4, 0.61) ach_noj 0.58 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) pandemic 0.22 0.52 (0.42, 0.63)
92_12 0.36 (0.27, 0.47) Z00_99 0.34 0.35 (0.27, 0.45) P00_99 0.34 0.36 (0.28, 0.45) ach_noj 0.33 0.38 (0.31, 0.47)
92_13 0.54 (0.47, 0.63) P00_99 1 0.68 (0.57, 0.78) cJ20_J22 1 0.94 (0.79, 1.1) Z00_99 0.14 0.95 (0.8, 1.12)
92_14 0.76 (0.62, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.92 (0.77, 1.11) Z00_99 0.96 0.87 (0.73, 1.04) K00_99 0.34 0.86 (0.71, 1.03)
92_15 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) pandemic 0.85 0.71 (0.55, 0.91) P00_99 0.67 0.72 (0.56, 0.92) ach_noj 0.48 0.69 (0.54, 0.88)

Plots

92_1

92_2

92_3

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

92_4

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

92_5

92_6

92_7

92_8

92_9

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

92_10

92_11

92_12

92_13

92_14

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

92_15